U.S. Weekend Box Office Round Up Fri 27 – Sun 29 July, 2018

Well the old Azman overshot the forecast mark on Mission: Impossible – Fallout (4,386 screens) by about 120% (hehe, go me!) but that’s what you get when you feverishly try to build a case around industry pundits thoughts and estimations. Nonetheless, it’s still the biggest opener of the series with a projected $60m opening weekend on a hefty $13,680 screen average. That puts Fallout 8% up on Rogue Nation‘s $55.5m opening weekend same time in 2015 and sees this new entry look at a $225m domestic finish which, if it can achieve that, will make it the highest grossing in the series domestically (unadjusted).

That should stake the international claim at the $525m mark, another record for the series, as we’ve seen the international market share providing near 70%+ of the business since Ghost Protocol. Though the entire Mission: Impossible series has always punched above its weight outside of the U.S., never falling below 60.5%.

That then puts the global result in the $750m range against Mission: Impossible – Fallout‘s $178m budget. Another record, smashing franchise leader Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol’s $694.7m gross by 8%.

Critically, Mission: Impossible – Fallout is the best reviewed in the series. landing a 97% fresh score, and an A Cinemascore from audiences. Both those ticks should translate into solid word of mouth which will keep the film on screens longer and, with a slew of wide family and femme skew products coming this weekend, it should still hold the male gaze for a solid weekend 2.

I went a little statistic-tastic on the series and you can check out the performances of each of the films below. Please note the averages only relate to the first 5 films, Mission: Impossible – Fallout is not included in those figures.

Film

Opening

U.S. Life

Intern Life

Global Life

Budget

Mission: Impossible (63% Fresh)

$‎ 45.4m $‎ 180m $‎ 277m (60.5%)
$‎ 457.7m $‎ 80m

M:I 2
(57% Rotten)

$‎ 57.8m $‎ 215.4m $‎ 331m (60.6%)
$‎ 546.4m $‎ 125m

M:I 3
(70% Fresh)

$‎ 47.7m $‎ 134m $‎ 263.8m (66.3%)
$‎ 397.9m $‎ 150m

M:I – Ghost Protocol (93% Fresh)

$‎ 42.3m $‎ 209.4m $‎ 485.3m (69.9%)
$‎ 694.7m $‎ 145m

M:I – Rogue Nation
(93% Fresh)

$‎ 55.5m $‎ 195m $‎ 487.7m (71.4%)
$‎ 682.7m $‎ 150m

M:I – Fallout (97% Fresh)

$‎ 60m $‎ 225m $‎525m (70%)
$‎ 750m $‎ 178m

Averages

$‎ 49.8m $‎ 187m $‎ 369m $‎ 556m $‎ 130m

Mamma Mia!: Here We Go Again (3,51 screens) swan dives 56% in weekend 2 for a $15.3m take on a $4,354 screen average.  Behaving like a franchise sequel, the film is sitting on $70.7m domestically, well ahead of the original Mamma Mia!‘s weekend 2 season to date total of $62.6m (+12.9%). The film’s business should stabilise to 30% drop offs from here although there is a wall of new titles that will grab the gaze of the female audience and family audiences this weekend might have an impact in the form of: The Spy Who Dumped Me, Christopher Robin, and The Darkest Minds.

With a global gross crossing $150m after two weeks and a U.S. domestic finish of (also) circa $150m, this $75m production is well on its way to being another big earner for Universal. Let’s just wait for the announcement of Mamma Mia!: How Can I Resist You? to be announced…

The Equalizer 2 (3,388 screens) collapses in weekend 2, dropping by 62%, with all thanks going to Mission: Impossible – Fallout. Taking in $13.6m on a $4,014 screen average, the film has now grossed $63.8m domestically which is almost like for like with the 2014’s The Equalizer was at the end of weekend 2 – $64.2m. This one is such an interesting prospect as, since it opened, The Equalizer 2 has performed virtually identical to the original’s box office on like for like budgets. The original cost $55m to produce, this one was $62m.

Domestically, The Equalizer 2 should nudge $100m to finish. Globally, it’s sitting around the $70m mark but many territories are yet to open the feature and it should gross in the $90m international region for a full $200m tally.

Hotel Transylvania 3: A Monster Vacation (4,005 screens) holds off the new animated fare in its 3rd weekend for a $13.2m gross. That’s 44% off from last weekend and sports a $3,296 screen average for its efforts. With $120.1m in the bank thus far, that puts the film up 2.73% on Hotel Transylvania 2‘s $116.9m position at the end of its 3rd weekend. HT2 finished on $169m domestically, though it bowed in the September holidays and not Summer like this one did. Hotel Transylvania 3: A Monster Vacation is definitely holding on stronger than expected, albeit another big Disney title in Christopher Robin is coming this weekend, and it should see its domestic flag in the $160m range.

Globally, the movie has now crossed $250m on its way to a $400m+ result. We should hear news of a Hotel Transylvania 4 soon enough.

Teen Titans Go! To The Movies (3,188 screens) and disappoint on opening with $10.7m on a $3,356 screen average. The kid focused animated DC feature struck it with the core fan base but little else. Luckily, this is a $10m production for Warner Bros so the line to bring it back in the black is much easier to reach, around the $25-$30m mark, and this should get to circa $30m before its all said and done.

With an 89% Fresh critical score and a B+ Cinemascore – word of mouth looks decided positive for the feature which could mean a much longer shelf life than the $30m projected on it. It’s a kiddies wild card, people, a kiddies wild card! And I am sure Christopher Robin will have something to say about Teen Titans Go! To The Movies longevity when it rolls out this weekend.

Ant-Man and the Wasp (3,013 screens) sheds 45% in weekend 4 for a $9m weekend on a $2,987 screen average. With $183.7m in the tank thus far and a $200m domestic finish, it has now out-grossed the original Ant-Man‘s $180.2m domestic take and $380m in global sales. That’s a solid result for the $165m production and puts it at #16 all time best for the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

Incredibles 2 (2,616 screens) takes $7.7m in weekend 7, off 35%, on a $2,943 screen average to bring the domestic haul to $573.3m. Inching its way ever so slowly to a $590m+ finish, the film has now hit $960m globally. The challenge now is, can the film hit the mega $1bn global gross milestone?? WHAT. A. RESULT!

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2,685 screens) gobbles $7.1m in weekend 6, on a $2,644 screen average, to bring the domestic haul to $397.8m. Yep, this is the week where the film will cross $400m in the U.S., on a $170m budget, as the global result sits at $1.23bn. This will also be the week where Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom will surpass the original Jurassic Park‘s $402m domestic finish line (unadjusted). When are they going to announce Jurassic World: Prolapsed Armageddon?

Skyscraper (2,773 screens) had its screen count butchered by 1,049 this weekend, slipped 32%, and grossed $5.4m on a $1,947 screen average. The film’s over. With $59.2m in the domestic kitty and $230m in global sales, it’s a disappointing result for the $125m production but one that just might limp its way to balance on the theatrical season. $70m finish.

The First Purge (1,050 screens) slips 35% in weekend 4 for a $2.7m gross on a $2,571 screen average. Miraculous that this is still in the top ten after 4 weeks of play off, The First Purge has now grossed $66m domestically and $110m worldwide on a $13m budget. bang! If this can finish on $72m, it will become the 2nd highest grossing in the series domestically:

THE PURGE – $64.5m
THE PURGE: ANARCHY – $71.9m
THE PURGE: ELECTION YEAR – $79.2m
THE FIRST PURGE – $72m (?)

In Cinemas Friday 3 August, 2018 – Christopher Robin, The Spy Who Dumped Me, The Darkest Minds, The Death of a Nation, Never Goin’ Back, Eighth Grade (Expansion)

Figures from Deadline