What a week for franchise sequels in cinemas with no less than 7 of the top 10 being so. Heading the pack, as no surprise, is Marvel newbie Ant-Man and the Wasp (4,206 screens) which is looking to land with $82.4m on a $19,591 screen average. That opening is a $3.3m behind 2013’s Thor: The Dark World ($85.7m) comparatively, yet it’s a whopping 44% up on the original 2015 Ant-Man‘s $57.32m opening.
That puts the ball park domestic result in the $220m range for the circa $162m budget (to be confirmed). Add international into the mix, which should be about 65% of the film’s theatrical stake, and you’re looking at a $630m+ global result and another winner for a banner Marvel year.
For Phase 3 Marvel in 2018, Ant-Man and the Wasp will be the lowest performer but it also comes in as the cheapest production cost so this isn’t a bad news story by any stretch of the imagination. On top of that, no-one would be expecting it to be able to reach the heights of its two predecessors Avengers: Infinity War or Black Panther.
Reviewers got a kick out of it, awarding it an 86% fresh score, and audiences were just as warm landing an A- Cinemascore from exiting viewers. With 3 weeks of big releases ahead of it, the game is on for Ant-Man and the Wasp to deliver a north-of $200m domestic result with the likes of Skyscraper, Hotel Transylvania 3, The Equalizer 2, and Mission: Impossible – Fallout all coming before the end of July.
Moving onto the next mammoth release in the unstoppable Incredibles 2 (4,113 screens) as it claims $31.9m in weekend 4 on a $7,756 screen average. Off only 31%, even with the weight of Ant-Man and the Wasp, the film has now smashed past $507.2m domestically to make it the highest grossing animated film of all time in the United States, surpassing Finding Dory‘s $484m boon in 2016. Based on the current results, and what with Hotel Transylvania 3 about to open, Incredibles 2 is looking at a near $600m domestic finish.
Globally, the film has now crossed $710m with a finish line in the $850m range. Interestingly, Incredibles 2 market share is sitting around 70% U.S. domestic and 30% international. Most films sit in the 65% int, 25% U.S. range. That means that, whilst Incredibles 2 is a blockbusting record breaker in the United States, on the global front it’ll come in around #14-#15 all time highest grosser. That global #1 animated film of all time is… you guessed it… Frozen with $1.274bn. Here’s the top 10 animated films of all time globally, courtesy thenumbers.com:
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (4,349 screens) adds $31.3m, off 49% from weekend 2, to bring the domestic gross to $336m. Sporting a still strong $7,197 screen average, it’s staying power against the other franchise pictures (on what would be one of the more divisive entries in the series) is really quite impressive. The film has now busted $1.02bn in global ticket sales for the $170m picture so to call this anything less than a bona fide hit would be to do it no justice. This will scale to $420m domestically, which puts the final flag at around $1.27bn globally where it will be (and currently already is) the #3 highest grossing release of 2018 behind Black Panther ($1.35bn) and Avengers: Infinity War ($2.038bn).
The First Purge (3,031 screens), which released on Wed 4 July, smashes a $32.4m 5 day opening weekend on a $10,690 screen average. The $13m production, yet another profitable cash cow for Blumhouse/Universal, stormed home on a perfectly executed counter programmed Summer schlocker. It’s all things expansive for this franchise as it is now heading to television for a series. Reviewers were ho-hum on it, awarding it 52% rotten with the consensus saying the visceral thrills are there but its reason for being is starting to wane.
For Blumhouse/Universal, that opening weekend is virtually identical to 2013’s original The Purge which bowed to $34.05m and went on to gross $64.5m domestically. The First Purge is more in the $60m range given the genre sequelitis it has and the wall of high calibre content coming in the next 3 weeks. Still, the film is already working in profit so we can expect another sequel announcement on top of the TV series imminently.
Sicario: Day of the Soldado (3,055 screens) falls by 58% in weekend 2, behaving like a franchise sequel, for $7.9m on a flat lining $2,586 screen average. With $35.9m in the bank so far, this has pulled up hard and fast under the weight of the broader appeal sequels that came into play this weekend. Given that drop, the finish line looks in the $50m range domestically, which is 6.4% up on the original Sicario‘s $47m domestic haul.
Uncle Drew (2,742 screens) fell over in weekend 2, dropping 54%, for a $7m gross on a $2,553 screen average. Sure, it plays predominantly to the African-American Diaspora, but still a disappointing second weekend result given the critical and audience good will for it. Namely, Ant-Man and the Wasp and The First Purge would’ve caught the attention of teens this weekend and shied away on this one. With $30.3m in the tank, Uncle Drew looks to have its final dunk at around the $45m mark domestically which, on a $19m budget, should see it break even theatrically.
Ocean’s 8 (2,604 screens) drinks down $5.8m for weekend 5 on a $2,227 screen average to bring the domestic haul to $127.3m. Officially the 2nd highest grosser in the Ocean’s franchise, it also marks the only wide release film that plays directly into the female audience. Sure, that screen average is deathly and puts the finish line at $140m, yet there has been really nothing out there that is solely playing to adult women and, thus, it’s why Ocean’s 8 has been hanging around so long.
Tag (2,157 screens) is only in cinemas cosmetically to fill up empty screen space and a weekend 4 result of $3.2m on a $1,484 screen average is a tell tale sign of that. Still, with $48.4m in the kitty, this unexpected little earner for New Line/Warner Bros will come home on $52m off a $28m budget and no-one, near or far, would’ve predicted that.
Won’t You Be My Neighbour? (893 screens) goes up again in week 5, adding 9% to the business, for a $2.6m gross on a $2,912 screen average. The documentary has earned $12.4m to date in the U.S. for the circa $2m production. Adding 239 screens this week certainly had a major impact on the screen average (halved it from last weekend) and that, in turn, will shorthen the theatrical run life expectancy. This should push to a $16m finish.
Deadpool 2 (1,267 screens) takes its final lap in the top ten after 8 weeks with a $1.8m gross on a $1,421 screen average. Crossing $314.6m, the sequel rounds out its domestic run at roughly $316m or 12.95% behind the original Deadpool‘s $363m domestic gross. Globally, the film has hit $727m or 7.15% behind the original’s $783m global gross. Either way, on an $110m budget, it’s a massive hit any which way you look at it!
In Cinemas Friday 13 July, 2018 – Hotel Transylvania 3: A Monster Vacation, Skyscraper
Figures from Deadline