U.S. Weekend Box Office Round Up Fri 12 – Sun 14 Jan, 2018

There’s nothing stopping the Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (3,849 screens) box office machine as it dominates the Martin Luther King Long Weekend with a forecasted $30.9m 4 day weekend. We’re 4 weekends in and the film has gobbled up $287m in domestic receipts and, with a 4th cycle screen average of $8,028, there’s still a good $40m left in this. That puts the film’s U.S. finish line in the $330m range or, in other words, circa Spider-Man Homecoming‘s $334m take. Yep, that’s how big this property is. Globally, the film is about to bust $600m.

In a hugely encouraging turn, the long awaited expansion of Steven Spielberg’s The Post (2,819 screens) worked a treat with a forecast $20.5m 4 day weekend on a respectable $7,272 screen average. Given how heavy the leaderboard is with actioners and tentpole releases, this ostensibly claustrophobic drama (driven by its topicality and perennial star power) managed to get cut through and drag out the more discerning viewer. With $25m in the tank, this $50m production is poised to climb its way to a $80m+ finish.

Jaume Collet-Serra’s third collaboration with Liam Neeson disappoints at the box office as The Commuter (2,892 screens) opens to $14.9m on a $5,152 screen average. Reviewers were ho-hum with the film, posting a 56% rotten score, mostly citing its same old same old approach. Are the days of Liam Neeson one man action hero all but spent? Looks like. Then again, being in a line up full of high profile male skew action films can;t have helped matters. This is performing at 48.2% behind Non-Stop‘s $28.8m opening which went on to take $92.1m at the U.S. box office. The Commuter is more in the $35-$40m range top end.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (3,090 screens) consumes $14m for its 5th weekend on a $4,531 screen average. With $594.2m in the can thus far, this puppy is looking to come home at the $630m mark domestically.  Now the 2nd highest grossing film in the canon, the film has hit $1.27bn globally and claimed the 11th highest grossing film of all time. Surprisingly, its achieved this whilst completely bombing in China where it has only done $28m.

The Greatest Showman (2,938 screes) just keeps sitting and earning modestly weekend in and out as it takes another $13.7m for its 4th rotation on a $4,663 screen average. After a disastrous opening weekend, the film managed to recover and find its audience as it now crosses $96.45m domestically on its way to a $130m+ finish. Globally, the $84m production is set to cross $200m in less than a week. Still, a fair way off what it needs to cross into the black once publicity and advertising costs hit the bill, but the result will drive the home entertainment prospects up exponentially.

Insidious: The Last Key (3,150 screens) behaves exactly like a horror franchise property and plummets 61% in weekend 2 for a $13.2m weekend on a $4,190 screen average. With $52.9m in the kitty, the $10m production has already outgrossed Chapter 3‘s $52m lifetime gross, and is churning profit for Blumhouse/Universal. This should hit about $70m for a final line to make it the 2nd highest gross in the franchise behind Chapter 2’s $84m domestic haul. Waiting for the 5th chapter announcement.

Paddington 2 (3,702 screens) opens to $12.6m on a modest $3,404 screen average. That’s 33.6% off the pace from 2015’s Paddington that opened to $18.966m and went on to gross $76.3m domestically. Kids films these holidays have been commercially disappointing across the board with Coco, Ferdinand, and now Paddington 2 all under-performing in the frame. Due to the 4 quadrant monsters of Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle gobbling up the families, Paddington 2 just didn’t get t breathe as much as it needed to. Critically, the film is still posting the golden 100% Fresh score (and deservingly so, the film is wonderful) and hopefully word of mouth will spread and get the families in. $50m.

Proud Mary (2,125 screens) opens to $10.9m on a modest $5,129 screen average. The $14m budgeted r-rated ode to Foxy Brown starring Taraji P. Henson certainly held its own ground and captured strong returns from its demographic. Reviewers weren’t as kind, slamming it with a 25% rotten score, citing that the actress is far, far better than the material she is working with. All over for $30m.

AWARDS WATCH

Darkest Hour (1,693 screens) slips 33% for a $5m weekend with both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice wins failing to translate into turnstiles rolling over. Oscar noms announcement will be the next big hope. $36.3m in the can so far.

I, Tonya (517 screens) keep etching in the wins for Allison Janney, who’s now the favourite for Best Supporting Actress Oscar, as it adds 275 screens and the business jumps up 34%. With $11.7m in the kitty so far, the topicality of the film and the awards attention, this has a healthy life left in it and should be able to push to the $50m mark.

The Shape of Water (723 screens) slips 14% in weekend 7 for a $3.3m forecasted 4 day rotation. That Best Picture win from Critics Circle didn’t translate into sales for the love story fable. With $27m in the tank so far it will be interesting to see what Fox Searchlight do with the film, if they will platform it and send it out mega wide or hold it here. It does play decidedly upscale and the lack of big time fantasy action might hold some mainstream viewers back. $40m.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (1,022 screens) adds 712 screens and 226% to the box office in weekend 10 for a $2.8m gross on an anemic $2,740 screen average. Extraordinarily, this is now the front runner for Best Picture, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor Oscar (I, dear reader, cannot understand it) yet the Golden Globes and Critics Choice wins had little to now impact on the weekend take. With $29m in the tank, the fortunes will need to turn around if it is to stay on screens till Oscars. $40m.

Phantom Thread (62 screens) adds 56 screens and 306% to the box office as it takes $1.1m on a mammoth $17,742 screen average. The discerning crowd came out in force for Paul Thomas Anderson’s critical darling and with $2.25m in the tank so far, this should be able to get up around the $16-$18m mark if it behaves like one of his films.

In Cinemas Friday 19 January, 2018 – 12 Strong, Den of Thieves, Forever My Girl

Figures from Deadline

  1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle(SONY), 3,849 theaters (+48) / $6.1M Fri (-43%)/3-day: $24.4M (-33%)/4-day: $30.9M/Total:$286.9M/ Wk 4
  2. The Post  (FOX/DW), 2,819 theaters (+2,783) / $5.9M  Fri (+1090%) /3-day:$17.2M(+912%)/4-day: $20.5M/Total: $25M/Wk 4
  3. The Commuter(LG), 2,892 theaters / $4.5M Fri/3-day: $12.7M /4-day: $14.9M/Wk 1
  4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 3,090 theaters (-1142)/ $2.7M  Fri (-58%)/3-day: $10.96M (-54%)/4-day: $14M/Total:$594.2M/ Wk 5
  5. The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 2,938 theaters (-404) / $3M Fri (-27%) / 3-day:$11.25M (-18%)/4-day: $13.7M/Total: $96.45M/Wk 4
  6. Insidious: The Last Key(UNI), 3,150 theaters (+34)/ $3.4M (-73%) Fri/3-day: $11.4M (-61%)/4-day: $13.2M/Total: $52.9M/ Wk 2
  7. Paddington 2(WB), 3,702 theaters / $2.6M Fri/3-day: $10.8M /4-day: $12.6M/Wk 1
  8.  Proud Mary(Sony), 2,125 theaters / $3.3M Fri/3-day: $9.8M /4-day: $10.9M/Wk 1
  9. Pitch Perfect 3  (UNI), 2,505 theaters (-953)/ $1.4M  Fri (-56%)/3-day: $4.9M(-52%)/4-day: $5.9M/Total: $96.3M/ Wk 4
  10. Molly’s Game (STX) 1,708 theaters (+100)/$1.1M Fri (-52%)/3-day:$4.1M (-40%)/4-day: $5.1M/Total: $21.7M/ Wk 3
  11. Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,693 theaters (-40)/ $1.2M Fri (-32%) /3-day: $4M(-33%)/4-day:$5M Total: $36.3M/ Wk 8

NOTABLES

I, Tonya  (NEON/30), 517 theaters (+275) / $955K  Fri (+17%)/3-day: $3.2M (+34%)/4-day: $4M/Total: $11.7M/Wk 6

The Shape of Water  (FSL), 723 theaters (-81)  / $730K Fri (-14%) /3-day: $2.7M (-14%)/4-day: $3.3M/Total: $27M/Wk 7

Three Billboards…  (FSL), 1,022 theaters (+712)  / $635K Fri (+242%) /3-day: $2.3M (+226%)/4-day: $2.8M/Total: $29M/Wk 10

Phantom Thread  (FOC), 62 theaters (+56) / $343K  Fri (+408%)/3-day: $975K (+306%)/PTA: $15.6K/4-day: $1.1M/Total: $2.25M/Wk 3