Aza’s Oscar Predictions 2017

fencesWell, you know, I love gettin’ in bright and early (and getting them all wrong) with Oscar predictions so here is my current list of nominees for next year’s oscars. I get a lot of my thoughts from how films are trending in the critosphere and what’s getting the buzz alongside the films that I have seen. Most notably about 2017 is that, this year, the Oscars ain’t gonna be so white. In fact African American representation in this year’s line up will be the biggest % of nominations in the history of the Oscars with thanks to the films Fences, Moonlight, O.J.: Made in America, I Am Not Your Negro, Loving and 13th all representing. The biggest omission is Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation which won’t get recognized.

la-la-land-posterThis Oscars will be all about the return of the musical with Damien Chazelle’s La La Land. I have it down for 15 nominations where it should take a good chunk of them. The other big nomination contender will be Martin Scorsese’s Silence, the Academy loves him and most of his crew are all Academy members so they’ll vote for this passion project and I have it down for 13 nominations. Denis Villeneuve’s Arrival should check in around 8 noms with Pablo Lorrain’s Jackie scooping 7, Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester By The Sea catching 6 and Denzel Washington’s Fences scoring 5.

From a performance perspective, however, the battle for Best Picture is between two films – La La Land and Fences. Full categories and my predictions below (I’ve left out animated short, live action short and documentary short). My winners in red!

Oscar Nom Leaderboard (for those with more than 1 nom):

LA LA LAND – 15 Nominations
SILENCE – 13 Nominations
ARRIVAL – 8 Nominations
JACKIE – 7 Nominations
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA – 6 Nominations
FENCES – 5 Nominations
MOONLIGHT – 5 Nominations
HELL OR HIGH WATER – 4 Nominations
SULLY – 4 Nominations
20TH CENTURY WOMEN – 3 Nominations
BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK – 3 Nominations
ELLE – 3 Nominations
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY – 3 Nominations
13TH – 2 Nominations
DOCTOR STRANGE – 2 Nominations
LION – 2 Nominations
LOVING – 2 Nominations

 

OSCARS 2017
BEST FILM NOMINEES

1

LA LA LAND

2

MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

3

SULLY

4

JACKIE

5

FENCES

6

ARRIVAL

7

20TH CENTURY WOMEN

8

MOONLIGHT

9

LOVING

10

SILENCE
BEST DIRECTOR

1

DAMIEN CHAZZELLE (La La Land)

2

KENNETH LONERGAN (Manchester By The Sea)

3

MARTIN SCORSESE (Silence)

4

DENZEL WASHINGTON (Fences)

5

BARRY JENKINS (Moonlight)
BEST ACTRESS

1

NATALIE PORTMAN – JACKIE

2

ISABELLE HUPPERT – ELLE

3

ANNETTE BENING – 20TH CENTURY WOMEN

4

EMMA STONE – LA LA LAND

5

RUTH NEGGA – LOVING
BEST ACTOR

1

CASEY AFFLECK – MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

2

TOM HANKS – SULLY

3

ANDREW GARFIELD – SILENCE

4

RYAN GOSLING – LA LA LAND

5

DENZEL WASHINGTON – FENCES
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1

VIOLA DAVIS – FENCES

2

MICHELLE WILLIAMS – MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

3

NAOMIE HARRIS – MOONLIGHT

4

GRETA GERWIG – 20TH CENTURY WOMEN

5

NICOLE KIDMAN – LION
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1

JEFF BRIDGES – HELL OR HIGH WATER

2

LIAM NEESON – SILENCE

3

MAHERSHALA ALI – MOONLIGHT

4

DEV PATEL – LION

5

LUCAS HEDGES – MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1

LA LA LAND by DAMIEN CHAZELLE

2

MOONLIGHT by BARRY JENKINS & TARELL MCCRANEY

3

MANCHESTER BY THE SEA by KENNETH LONERGAN

4

HELL OR HIGH WATER by TAYLOR SHERIDAN

5

JACKIE by NOAH OPPENHEIM
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1

SILENCE by JAY COCKS

2

ARRIVAL by ERIC HEISSERER

3

SULLY by TODD KOMARNICKI

4

FENCES by AUGUST WILSON

5

ELLE by DAVID BIRKE
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1

O.J.: MADE IN AMERICA

2

13th

3

I AM NOT YOUR NEGRO

4

WEINER

5

LIFE, ANIMATED
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1

ELLE – FRANCE

2

SAND STORM – ISRAEL

3

FIRE AT SEA – ITALY

4

TONI ERDMANN – GERMANY

5

NERUDA – CHILE
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1

FINDING DORY

2

THE RED TURTLE

3

KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS

4

ZOOTOPIA

5

MISS HOKUSAI
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1

LA LA LAND

2

SILENCE

3

ARRIVAL

4

HELL OR HIGH WATER

5

BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK
BEST EDITING

1

LA LA LAND

2

SILENCE

3

SULLY

4

MOONLIGHT

5

ARRIVAL
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1

FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM

2

LA LA LAND

3

JACKIE

4

SILENCE

5

LIVE BY NIGHT
BEST HAIR & MAKE-UP

1

FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM

2

LA LA LAND

3

JACKIE

4

SILENCE

5

DOCTOR STRANGE
BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1

FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM

2

FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS

3

LA LA LAND

4

JACKIE

5

SILENCE
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1

ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY

2

THE JUNGLE BOOK

3

ARRIVAL

4

DOCTOR STRANGE

5

FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM
BEST SOUND EDITING

1

ARRIVAL

2

ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY

3

BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK

4

SILENCE

5

LA LA LAND
BEST SOUND MIXING

1

ARRIVAL

2

ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY

3

LA LA LAND

4

BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK

5

SILENCE
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1

ARRIVAL

2

SILENCE

3

JACKIE

4

LA LA LAND

5

HELL OR HIGH WATER
BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1

AUDITION – LA LA LAND

2

CITY OF STARS – LA LA LAND

3

A LETTER TO THE FREE – 13TH

4

WE KNOW THE WAY – MOANA

5

DRIVE IT LIKE YOU STOLE IT – SING STREET

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