007 Skyfall Is Almost Here – So What Can It Do In Australia?

Well the big brawler SKYFALL opens tomorrow and its going out with no competition for its core market, bolstered with stellar reviews and what will be guaranteed saturation level sessions here, there and everywhere the film has all the stars aligned to score itself the highest grossing opening weekend of the franchise ever. Let’s have a look back at the recent Bonds (Pierce vs Daniel) and how they performed – there are some real surprises here:

Rank Title Release Date Opening Weekend Full Season % Op We Diff Prev
1 Goldeneye 26/12/1995  $         2,442,554  $  13,795,659 18%
2 Tomorrow Never Dies 26/12/1997  $         2,809,871  $  12,188,046 23% 15%
3 World Is Not Enough, The 25/11/1999  $         3,627,626  $  14,168,737 26% 29%
4 Die Another Day 12/12/2002  $         4,775,897  $  18,731,434 25% 32%
5 Casino Royale 07/12/2006  $         6,701,890  $  32,211,499 21% 40%
6 Quantum Of Solace 19/11/2008  $         9,729,078  $  31,012,109 31% 45%
7 Skyfall** 22/11/2012  $       10,500,000  $  37,000,000 28% 8%
Totals  $       40,586,916  $159,107,484 26%
Pierce Brosnan Average 4 Films  $         3,413,987  $  14,720,969 Diff Op We Diff Seas
Daniel Craig Average 2 Films  $         8,215,484  $  31,611,804 141% 115%

 

SKYFALL won’t open to the huge weekend that TWILIGHT just did but it’ll still be in the top 5 opening weekends of the year. If the film had a teen female skew outside of Daniel Craig adorers, though I don’t know how you’d make the franchise teen fem friendly (or why on earth you’d bother!?!) unless you cast a Jonas Brother as James Bond, it could rise higher but my gut has the film at $10.5m opening weekend here – why? Well I would imagine that all the premium cinema venues options are all sold out, all the key evenings across major multiplexes are presold heavily and add to that inflated IMAX ticket pricing – it’s all shaping up to be the highest grossing opening weekend for a Bond film in Australian history.

SKYFALL has pretty much no real competition releasing between now and the start of the new year. There’s RED DAWN On the 29th but that won’t be able to pip it from the top spot for the 2nd weekend. Then there’s really nothing to stop it earning $37m (or north of that) until THE HOBBIT & LES MISERABLES on Boxing Day and LIFE OF PI(Jan 1)  & JACK REACHER (Jan 3) but that gives the film 5 weeks in cinemas by itself. And It’s in this 5 week window where you’ll find the films week on week drops will be a lot smaller than usual (Outside week 1 – 2 as the gross this weekend will be so top heavy it’ll have to fall 50% week on week) and the film will really earn its keep… and forecasted gigantic box office. It’s in everyone’s best interest just to let this puppy just sit and play uninterrupted.

When the holidays hit – with the wall of key studio and premium limited releases going out for summer – SKYFALL is the sort of title (and even TWILIGHT: BREAKING DAWN PART 2 is) that you can hang onto for limited sessions right through January and it’ll still earn its keep. The original TWILIGHT benefited from this when nobody really thought the film would bust $10m and it walked off with $20m.

For this opening weekend this is how I see the Aussie Box Office (unless I’ve missed something completely) finishing up on Sunday night. All about the superspy!

Figures from MPDAA, BOX OFFICE MOJO, IMDB, RENTRAK. The below is from my warped brain that might’ve been left in the sun too long!

1 SKYFALL  $            10,500,000
2 TWILIGHT SAGA BREAKING DAWN  $              5,000,000
3 ARGO  $                 750,000
4 THE INTOUCHABLES  $                 350,000
5 SEVEN PSYCHOPATHS  $                 250,000
6 3D NITRO CIRCUS  $                 250,000
7 BACHELORETTE  $                 250,000
8 THE SESSIONS  $                 200,000
9 JAD TAK HAI JAAN  $                 100,000
10 2 DAYS IN NEW YORK  $                 100,000